At ocean’s edge, Carmel confronts reality of rising tide

Published March 5, 2026

BY ZANA BALABAN

As climate-driven sea level rise accelerates along California’s precipitous coastline, Carmel-by-the-Sea faces mounting pressure to protect its beaches, infrastructure and economy. Sounding the alarm, local engineers, environmental analysts and researchers warn that while the most severe impacts may still be decades away, decisions to shape the city’s future must begin now.

Economist and coastal researcher Dr. Charles Colgan–director of research for the Center for the Blue Economy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies–has spent decades studying the intersection of coastal economies and climate risks and says Carmel River is in a unique, dual-threatened position.

“Storms will enhance the sea level rise because of wind and storm surge–attacking from the sea–as well as potentially dumping much more rain on the upper watershed of the Carmel River–attacking from the land,” Colgan says. “The combination will wipe out the sand bar that currently protects the mouth of the river.”

If, or when, that natural barrier falls, the result could be widespread flooding across Carmel and Carmel Valley. This “two-front war against water,” as Colgan describes it, complicates adaptation planning. Communities typically face three primary solutions: build protective barriers, elevate structures or relocate entirely. In his experience, successful coastal towns integrate sea level rise planning into everyday governance rather than reacting only after disaster strikes.

“My research has shown that in most places it is already too late, by as much as a decade,” he warns. “It can’t be addressed for a couple of months after an event and then forgotten if nothing else happens.”

Carmel’s lagoon, the Mission Fields neighborhood and the wastewater treatment plant sit on this flood plain on the bank of the Carmel River. In an area so sensitive to changes in sea level and storm patterns, critical infrastructure collecting 80 miles of sewer pipe is directly in the path of unforgiving climate change.

The century-old plant is now preparing for scenarios that once seemed remote, juggling to balance the ecological needs of the lagoon with flood protection. The Carmel Area Wastewater District operates on a long planning horizon, reviewing risks every five years as new climate data emerges and giving itself roughly four decades to finalize a “shovel-ready” plan, even though the most severe impacts may not arrive for another 60 years. 

“We’re in the data gathering mode, monitoring river flows, lagoon levels, and seeing what science modeling projects for the actual flood risks,” says Jeff Bandy, principal engineer for CAWD. “We’re trying to read the sea leaves on a very, very complicated dynamic global system, which is why the research is so critical.”

History has already provided a preview of what future flooding could look like. During floods in 1995 and 1998, water reached the rim of the plant’s clarifiers and forced workers to paddle a canoe across the facility, an event that teetered on the edge of a public health disaster. These threats only worsen as sea levels rise.

In response, the district is evaluating a trifecta of adaptation strategies that mirror those identified by Colgan. Hard protections such as seawalls remain off the table because the plant falls under the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission, which heavily restricts environmental barriers.

“All seawalls play is whack-a-mole,” Bandy explains. “That water is just going to find the next lowest place, so you’re not helping the problem–you’re just worsening it for other people.”

Softer defenses, including bioengineered “horizontal levees” that use vegetation and soil to slow floodwaters, have shown promise elsewhere, but require far more land than is available along Carmel’s narrow coastal corridor, leaving Colgan’s third option.

“Between the modeling and what we’re observing out in nature, there could be a time when we have to take the plant and move it inland from the coast,” Bandy says. “That’s a nightmare scenario.”

Bandy’s nightmare would cost an estimated $125 million, let alone the land acquisition, regulatory approvals and construction impacts. More critically, the linchpin of CAWD’s hydraulic operation is gravity, and the move would require transitioning to an extensive pump-based system, which would increase expenses, raise environmental risks and introduce additional opportunities for system failure.

Yet what’s at stake in Carmel is more than infrastructure.

One recent socioeconomic study by Integral Consulting Inc., a firm providing scientific and engineering services to manage health, environmental, and product safety risks, used a non-market rate to determine the value of a day at Carmel Beach.

“It’s the value of recreation, not how much somebody spends in Carmel, and it doesn’t have to do with property tax or sales tax or hotels,” explains Val Gaino, environmental analyst for the city. “They calculated the value of an experience at Carmel Beach to be $32 a visit.”

These numbers can be used to understand the economic impact of sea level rise. To protect their largest resource, the city is pursuing near-term strategies such as relocating sand from the active shoreline to the “back beach” during calmer seasons this spring or fall. The added material creates a buffer, forcing larger waves and tides to work harder before reaching the seawalls and revetments–the large, human-placed rocks beneath coastal vegetation.

The coastal ecosystem also struggles with invasive species such as ice plant and acacia that disrupt dune dynamics, so the city is looking to research native plants that will allow sand to move naturally with wind patterns. Just beyond this vegetation lies the landmark Scenic Road and the two-mile stretch of multi-million dollar homes, all in great jeopardy.

“No matter what we do, even if we stop polluting or emitting carbon equivalent emissions entirely today, we are going to see at least a one-foot sea level rise between 2040 and 2050,” says Gaino, citing studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “It could end up being two feet, three feet, four or more depending on what humans do collectively.”

Kerstin Wasson, research coordinator for the Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve and adjunct professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of California, Santa Cruz, says Californians have long tried to fix in place an inherently dynamic coastline.

“For millennia, people lived in harmony with coastal processes,” Wasson says. “Following colonization, settlers and their descendants tried to control the edge between land and sea. They built roads, houses and farms in wetlands that are naturally prone to flooding.”

Much of the state’s coastal spending, she argues, has gone toward defending high-value development from the ocean’s natural processes.  But sea level rise offers an opportunity to reconsider that relationship.

“Rather than thinking of sea level rise as a threat, we can think of it as an opportunity, a time to work collaboratively as a community on a vision for tomorrow,” Wasson says.

She urges the community to think outside the box, pointing to voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties or gradual restoration of wetlands as parks–solutions that provide wildlife habitat while creating public space.

“Change is natural for coastal systems,” Wasson says. “We serve them better by restoring their ability to be dynamic, to migrate back and forth, than by trying to hold them in a static state.”

As the ocean makes its advance on communities like Carmel, the future is no longer a matter of preventing change but learning how to live with it. 

“We are all living in the ‘climate casino,’ whether we are gamblers or not,” Colgan says. “The best we can do is understand the game and make our bets.”